Interesting discussion! I’m mostly interested in the maths, so I’ll add some calculations. I think your 30% figure is realistic and should be applicable in most circumstances. I’ll calculate low-end and high-end builds to compare.
Damage Calculations
Percentile damage bonuses currently favour physical damage. The difference between damage types slightly increases for the high-end build.
Low-end: four pieces of armour, before exalting and without enchantment power:
- 20% elemental damage; total 120% of base
- 40% physical damage; total 140% of base
- physical damage does 16.7% more damage than elemental
High-end: four pieces of armour, full exalting, 40% enchantment power, damage-boosting gem(s) used; note that physical can boost with both weapon gem and shield gem, and remember that exalts are tripling elemental (5->15) but only doubling physical (10->20):
- 60% elemental damage from armour, 1.4× multiplier, 10% gem; total 194% base
- 80% physical damage from armour, 1.4× multiplier, 10% weapon gem, 10% shield gem with 40% enchantment power; total 236% of base
- physical damage does 21.6% more damage than elemental
In my testing (with 0% and 100% armour penetration), enemies have higher elemental than physical resistance. This reduces elemental damage by around 10–12% relative to physical damage. This difference lessens with armour penetration, which is therefore worth more for elemental builds.
Ignoring AP, but taking into account enchantments and resistances, physical damage is somewhere between 30% and 38% better. Your 30% figure is very consistent with my calculations. With AP, the difference lessens to 17–22%.
Element-Specific Benefits
At a cost of 10% additive damage (or 4.4% multiplicative), physical damage can inflict bleeding. This enables 20% lifesteal from a glove enchantment and does bleed damage to moving targets, which is hit or miss, but can be the strongest DoT on fast-moving enemies (bears, some bosses). I find it difficult to evaluate the merits of defensive effects like this lifesteal, but can say that I use it as a crutch at times.
Fire and lightning are offensive elements, plague and ice mostly defensive. There is some confusion what plague does exactly – it may lower enemy resistances, but since 100% armour penetration is still achievable and useful, this benefit is lessened, and it provides lifesteal.
Fire enables a 15% crit chance bonus (with a sharp rapier at 230% crit damage and five crit chance boosts, depending on exalts, this is around 14% total damage). While strong, this does not quite make up the raw damage difference to physical/bleed. The DoT is more universally useful than bleed.
Lightning enables a 15% overall speed bonus. I consider overall speed to be the strongest effect in the game, but as hard to quantify as defensive effects. It affects opportunities for damage more than per-hit damage. Lightning comes with bursts of AoE damage (‘Shock’), the exact damage contribution of which is likewise difficult to evaluate.
More on Shock
As a level-dependent effect, I would generalise and say Shock is most useful when the game is easy. Level-dependent effects are outscaled by enemy hp growth in Pestilence 4 or Cyvion fights.
The fact that Shock is so good while levelling is one of my counterpoints to the ‘just go physical’ idea. Affliction build-up scales with base damage, such that a lightning kick on a bow will instantly trigger Shock for a good chunk of the game. No comparable AoE option is present in physical damage.
Fire and lightning synergise for AoE explosions and decent damage (‘Overload’).
While limited only to the Crucible, echoes that boost elemental damage are numerous and strong. Elemental Crucible builds can reach higher damage than physical ones. Some care is required when picking the first infusion, but once picked random echoes can be bought more safely than on physical-damage builds.
On weapons not inherently elemental, infusing comes with a cost of 10% additive damage (5.4% multiplicative). Like the bleed cost, this can be circumvented with oils, with the physical build enjoying the benefit of its damage bonuses even after the Blade Oil expires. Elemental infusions can be applied through runes/spells at an opportunity cost.
Healthy Meta?
In total, I would say the one-sided dominance of elements has given way to a more level playing field. Physical damage is better in low-optimisation environments and for direct hits, but elements offer synergies and have strong exclusive enchantments.
On typical crit builds, fire can narrow the gap to under 7%.
I do not believe the ‘meta’ to be less stimulating than before. Particularly, I do not believe we have gone from oneshot to spam, but rather from oneshot to more meaningful gameplay and having to dodge occasionally. The intelligence required for buildcrafting has not decreased, and the dexterity required to control your character has increased.
But this is a personal opinion, and I respect your different view. I can absolutely see the counterpoint that ‘just go physical’ is dominant right now, that elements are too conditional (though I’d argue those conditions are easily met), or that the two extremes of enemies (oneshot for normal ones, long-ish dodge-and-counter game for Pestilence 4 or Cyvion) both encourage building for per-hit damage.
An idea I constantly change my mind about is whether it’d be desirable for elements to be set apart by enemy resistances, or environmental interactions, or to be as relatively consistent as they are now. I feel all damage works well against all enemies at the moment, with fire being bad for enemies with a toe in water and bleed needing movement. I’d like it for elemental identity, but Wicked locks you in. Not like you can adapt on the fly unless you’re carrying several full sets. But that’s a different discussion.